Supply and demandHi all!
This is my take on supply/demand. The gist is that it creates a zone if there is a big enough reaction. This is configurable in settings as "Minimum range (ATR factor)" (the Average True Length of length 14) that is the distance that the price must travel and "Reaction bars" that is the maximum number of bars that price must travel this distance. The zones that are shown are the ones that have a retest, break and retest or is unmitigated (untouched). If a zone is mitigated (entered) or broken it is temporarily hidden. For a zone to be created it needs to have this reaction and the previous bar does not.
So this script will show you zones that are fresh (unmitigated), retested or broken and retested. This means that the zones that are shown have "proven" that they are good zones through this. Basically it means that the script creates a bunch of zones and then picks the good once. This makes the script have some latency, but will hopefully give you good zones. A zone is completely removed if it's broken twice (it's okay if it's broken once and can still have a retest after it has flipped from previous supply (or resistance) into demand (or support)).
Here is a zone (the one that has the lowest opacity) that is broken and retested that could have resulted in a good long trade (the settings are default but has a stop in the beginning of 2024):
You have a setting to remove zones that are pierced (broken by price wicks). The following zone is pierced by price (in the beginning of May) that will not be shown after the start of May if you have "Pierced" checked (the indicator has default settings but a stop in the middle of April):
You have a trend section. Zones that create a reaction upwards can only be created if the trend is considered to be up, and vice versa. The options here are "SMA50" (the current price needs to be over the Simple Moving Average of length 50) and "SMA50, SMA200" (price needs to be over the Simple Moving Average of length 50 and the Simple Moving Average of length 50 needs to be over the Simple Moving Average of length 200). If these conditions are met the trend is considered to be up, otherwise it's down. You can disable this by choosing "No detection".
The zones that are shown also need to be within a limit (of the current price). This limit is 10 (factor of the Average True Range if length 14) by default. Set this to 0 to deactivate. This is useful for not showing zones that are far away from current price and therefore unlikely to be interacted with.
You can stop the calculation of zones (through the "Stop" value in the settings). This is useful to see if previous zones were any good. I used it in my testing of the script but left it because it can be nice to have.
The zones created by the script have different transparency based upon the zone's interaction. The clearest zones are the ones that are unmitigated, the second clearest ones are the ones having a retest and lastly the zones which are most unclear are the ones having a break and then a retest.
You can see the concept of this script to be a mix of supply/demand and support/resistance, having zones being unmitigated (untouched) as the most important but also show the zones having an interaction (in the form of a retest or a break and retest).
This is from a previous supply (or resistance) zone that has flipped into demand (or support) and has shown to be a good zone through a retest followed by a rally (default settings):
This zone has multiple retest and then rallies that could have given a good long trades (it has the default settings but a "Stop" time at 2022-01-14):
TODO:
- Create zones based on pivots
- Handle overlapping zones
- Incorporate volume in the creation and/or interaction with zones
- Add alerts
- Add ability to set maximum zone width
- Add ability to set the maximum number of retest bars
- ...?
The example for this publication has the default settings bit a "Stop" and a tighter "Limit" of 4.
I hope this explanation makes sense, let me know otherwise. Also let me know if you have any suggestions on improvements.
Best of trading luck!
在脚本中搜索"[中国保险行业协会]：2022年度商业健康保险经营数据"
Potential Divergence Checker#### Key Features
1. Potential Divergence Signals:
Potential divergences can signal a change in price movement before it occurs. This indicator identifies potential divergences instead of waiting for full confirmation, allowing it to detect signs of divergence earlier than traditional methods. This provides more flexible entry points and can act as a broader filter for potential setups.
2. Exposing Signals for External Use:
One of its advanced features is the ability to expose signals for use in other scripts. This allows users to integrate divergence signals and related entry/exit points into custom strategies or automated systems.
3. Custom Entry/Exit Timing Based on Years and Days:
The indicator provides entry and exit signals based on years and days, which could be useful for time-specific market behavior, long-term trades, and back testing.
#### Basic Usage
This indicator can check for all types of potential divergences: bullish, hidden bullish, bearish, hidden bearish. All you need to do is choose the type you want to check for under “DIVERGENCE TYPE” in the settings. On the chart, potential bullish divergences will show up as triangles below the price candles. one the chart potential bearish divergences will show up as upside down triangles above the price candles
#### Signals for Advanced Usage
You can use this indicator as a source in other indicators or strategies using the following information:
“ PD: Bull divergence signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: HBull divergence(hidden bull) signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: Bear divergence signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: HBear divergence(hidden bear) signal ” will return “1” when a divergence is present and “0” when not present
“ PD: enter ” signal will return a “1” when both the days and years criteria in the “entry filter settings” are met and “0” when not met.
“ PD: exit ” signal will return a “1” when the days criteria in the “exit filter settings” are met and “0” when not met.
#### Examples of Using Signals
1. If you are testing a long strategy for Bitcoin and do not want it to run during bear market years(e.g., the second year after a US presidential election), you can enable the “year and day filter for entry,” uncheck the following years in the settings: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, 2026, and reference the signal below in our strategy
signal: “ PD: enter ”
2. Let’s say you have a good long strategy, but want to make it a bit more profitable, you can tell the strategy not to run on days where there is potential bearish divergence and have it only run on more profitable days using these signals and the appropriate settings in the indicator
signal: “ PD: Bear divergence signal ” will return a ‘0’ with no bearish divergence present
signal: “ PD: enter ” will return a “1” if the entry falls on a specific, more profitable day chosen in the settings
#### Disclaimer
The "Potential Divergence Checker" indicator is a tool designed to identify potential market signals. It may have bugs and not do what it should do. It is not a guarantee of future trading performance, and users should exercise caution when making trading decisions based on its outputs. Always perform your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
NCI - Timeframe + WatermarkDeveloped by Jayce in June 2022 and later updated by Light in January 2024.
Key Features:
Customizable Watermark: Enhance your chart with a personalized watermark. Enter any text, like your trading mantra or brand name, to keep your focus aligned with your trading strategy.
Adjustable Font Size: Tailor the appearance of your watermark and notes with adjustable font sizes, ranging from "Tiny" to "Huge," ensuring optimal visibility and integration with your chart setup.
Timeframe Display: Stay informed of the current chart's timeframe, neatly displayed alongside your chosen watermark. Whether you're analyzing trends in minutes, hours, or days, this feature keeps you oriented without cluttering your workspace.
Inspirational Note: Complement your watermark with an inspirational note or a quick reminder of your trading discipline and risk management strategies, keeping your principles front and center.
Bitcoin Regression Price BoundariesTLDR
DCA into BTC at or below the blue line. DCA out of BTC when price approaches the red line. There's a setting to toggle the future extrapolation off/on.
INTRODUCTION
Regression analysis is a fundamental and powerful data science tool, when applied CORRECTLY . All Bitcoin regressions I've seen (Rainbow Log, Stock-to-flow, and non-linear models), have glaring flaws ... Namely, that they have huge drift from one cycle to the next.
Presented here, is a canonical application of this statistical tool. "Canonical" meaning that any trained analyst applying the established methodology, would arrive at the same result. We model 3 lines:
Upper price boundary (red) - Predicted the April 2021 top to within 1%
Lower price boundary (green)- Predicted the Dec 2022 bottom within 10%
Non-bubble best fit line (blue) - Last update was performed on Feb 28 2024.
NOTE: The red/green lines were calculated using solely data from BEFORE 2021.
"I'M INTRUIGED, BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS REGRESSION ANALYSIS?"
Quite simply, it attempts to draw a best-fit line over some set of data. As you can imagine, there are endless forms of equations that we might try. So we need objective means of determining which equations are better than others. This is where statistical rigor is crucial.
We check p-values to ensure that a proposed model is better than chance. When comparing two different equations, we check R-squared and Residual Standard Error, to determine which equation is modeling the data better. We check residuals to ensure the equation is sufficiently complex to model all the available signal. We check adjusted R-squared to ensure the equation is not *overly* complex and merely modeling random noise.
While most people probably won't entirely understand the above paragraph, there's enough key terminology in for the intellectually curious to research.
DIVING DEEPER INTO THE 3 REGRESSION LINES ABOVE
WARNING! THIS IS TECHNICAL, AND VERY ABBREVIATED
We prefer a linear regression, as the statistical checks it allows are convenient and powerful. However, the BTCUSD dataset is decidedly non-linear. Thus, we must log transform both the x-axis and y-axis. At the end of this process, we'll use e^ to transform back to natural scale.
Plotting the log transformed data reveals a crucial visual insight. The best fit line for the blowoff tops is different than for the lower price boundary. This is why other models have failed. They attempt to model ALL the data with just one equation. This causes drift in both the upper and lower boundaries. Here we calculate these boundaries as separate equations.
Upper Boundary (in red) = e^(3.24*ln(x)-15.8)
Lower Boundary (green) = e^(0.602*ln^2(x) - 4.78*ln(x) + 7.17)
Non-Bubble best fit (blue) = e^(0.633*ln^2(x) - 5.09*ln(x) +8.12)
* (x) = The number of days since July 18 2010
Anyone familiar with Bitcoin, knows it goes in cycles where price goes stratospheric, typically measured in months; and then a lengthy cool-off period measured in years. The non-bubble best fit line methodically removes the extreme upward deviations until the residuals have the closest statistical semblance to normal data (bell curve shaped data).
Whereas the upper/lower boundary only gets re-calculated in hindsight (well after a blowoff or capitulation occur), the Non-Bubble line changes ever so slightly with each new datapoint. The last update to this line was made on Feb 28, 2024.
ENOUGH NERD TALK! HOW CAN I APPLY THIS?
In the simplest terms, anything below the blue line is a statistical buying opportunity. The closer you approach the green line (the lower boundary) the more statistically strong that opportunity is. As price approaches the red line, is a growing statistical likelyhood/danger of an imminent blowoff top.
So a wise trader would DCA (dollar cost average) into Bitcoin below the blue line; and would DCA out of Bitcoin as it approaches the red line. Historically, you may or may not have a large time-window during points of maximum opportunity. So be vigilant! Anything within 10-20% of the boundary should be regarded as extreme opportunity.
Note: You can toggle the future extrapolation of these lines in the settings (default on).
CLOSING REMARKS
Keep in mind this is a pure statistical analysis. It's likely that this model is probing a complex, real economic process underlying the Bitcoin price. Statistical models like this are most accurate during steady state conditions, where the prevailing fundamentals are stable. (The astute observer will note, that the regression boundaries held despite the economic disruption of 2020).
Thus, it cannot be understated: Should some drastic fundamental change occur in the underlying economic landscape of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin itself, or the broader economy, this model could drastically deviate, and become significantly less accurate.
Furthermore, the upper/lower boundaries cross in the year 2037. THIS MODEL WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN. But for now, given that Bitcoin price moves on the order of 2000% from bottom to top, it's truly remarkable that, using SOLELY pre-2021 data, this model was able to nail the top/bottom within 10%.
Bitcoin Momentum StrategyThis is a very simple long-only strategy I've used since December 2022 to manage my Bitcoin position.
I'm sharing it as an open-source script for other traders to learn from the code and adapt it to their liking if they find the system concept interesting.
General Overview
Always do your own research and backtesting - this script is not intended to be traded blindly (no script should be) and I've done limited testing on other markets beyond Ethereum and BTC, it's just a template to tweak and play with and make into one's own.
The results shown in the strategy tester are from Bitcoin's inception so as to get a large sample size of trades, and potential returns have diminished significantly as BTC has grown to become a mega cap asset, but the script includes a date filter for backtesting and it has still performed solidly in recent years (speaking from personal experience using it myself - DYOR with the date filter).
The main advantage of this system in my opinion is in limiting the max drawdown significantly versus buy & hodl. Theoretically much better returns can be made by just holding, but that's also a good way to lose 70%+ of your capital in the inevitable bear markets (also speaking from experience).
In saying all of that, the future is fundamentally unknowable and past results in no way guarantee future performance.
System Concept:
Capture as much Bitcoin upside volatility as possible while side-stepping downside volatility as quickly as possible.
The system uses a simple but clever momentum-style trailing stop technique I learned from one of my trading mentors who uses this approach on momentum/trend-following stock market systems.
Basically, the system "ratchets" up the stop-loss to be much tighter during high bearish volatility to protect open profits from downside moves, but loosens the stop loss during sustained bullish momentum to let the position ride.
It is invested most of the time, unless BTC is trading below its 20-week EMA in which case it stays in cash/USDT to avoid holding through bear markets. It only trades one position (no pyramiding) and does not trade short, but can easily be tweaked to do whatever you like if you know what you're doing in Pine.
Default parameters:
HTF: Weekly Chart
EMA: 20-Period
ATR: 5-period
Bar Lookback: 7
Entry Rule #1:
Bitcoin's current price must be trading above its higher-timeframe EMA (Weekly 20 EMA).
Entry Rule #2:
Bitcoin must not be in 'caution' condition (no large bearish volatility swings recently).
Enter at next bar's open if conditions are met and we are not already involved in a trade.
"Caution" Condition:
Defined as true if BTC's recent 7-bar swing high minus current bar's low is > 1.5x ATR, or Daily close < Daily 20-EMA.
Trailing Stop:
Stop is trailed 1 ATR from recent swing high, or 20% of ATR if in caution condition (ie. 0.2 ATR).
Exit on next bar open upon a close below stop loss.
I typically use a limit order to open & exit trades as close to the open price as possible to reduce slippage, but the strategy script uses market orders.
I've never had any issues getting filled on limit orders close to the market price with BTC on the Daily timeframe, but if the exchange has relatively low slippage I've found market orders work fine too without much impact on the results particularly since BTC has consistently remained above $20k and highly liquid.
Cost of Trading:
The script uses no leverage and a default total round-trip commission of 0.3% which is what I pay on my exchange based on their tier structure, but this can vary widely from exchange to exchange and higher commission fees will have a significantly negative impact on realized gains so make sure to always input the correct theoretical commission cost when backtesting any script.
Static slippage is difficult to estimate in the strategy tester given the wide range of prices & liquidity BTC has experienced over the years and it largely depends on position size, I set it to 150 points per buy or sell as BTC is currently very liquid on the exchange I trade and I use limit orders where possible to enter/exit positions as close as possible to the market's open price as it significantly limits my slippage.
But again, this can vary a lot from exchange to exchange (for better or worse) and if BTC volatility is high at the time of execution this can have a negative impact on slippage and therefore real performance, so make sure to adjust it according to your exchange's tendencies.
Tax considerations should also be made based on short-term trade frequency if crypto profits are treated as a CGT event in your region.
Summary:
A simple, but effective and fairly robust system that achieves the goals I set for it.
From my preliminary testing it appears it may also work on altcoins but it might need a bit of tweaking/loosening with the trailing stop distance as the default parameters are designed to work with Bitcoin which obviously behaves very differently to smaller cap assets.
Good luck out there!
X% Drop in X Days, sold X Days afterIt identifies potential buy signals based on a specified percentage drop in price over a set number of days and calculates the total profit or loss (P/L) over a predefined period. Here's a breakdown of the script and its key parameters:
Script Description:
Indicator Name: "X% Drop in X Days, sold X Days after"
Functionality:
The script signals a buy opportunity when the price of an asset drops by a certain percentage (percentage_drop) within a specified length (length) in days.
It calculates the profit or loss percentage after a set number of days (hold_days) from the buy signal.
The script also displays the cumulative total profit or loss over a specified time frame, from a start date (start_period) to an end date (end_period), which is by default set to the current date.
Display:
Buy signals are marked on the chart.
The profit or loss for each trade after the hold period is displayed.
A label showing the total cumulative profit or loss, along with the start and end dates, is displayed on the chart.
Key Parameters:
percentage_drop (10.0% by default) : The percentage decrease in price that triggers a buy signal. It represents the threshold for the price drop to consider a buying opportunity.
length (3 days by default): The period over which the drop in price is considered. It's the timeframe used to evaluate the percentage drop.
hold_days (30 days by default) : The duration for holding the asset after the buy signal before selling. This parameter defines the time after which the profit or loss is calculated.
start_period (Set to "2022-11-21" by default): The beginning date for calculating the cumulative total profit or loss. This parameter allows the user to define a specific starting point for the analysis.
end_period (Set to the current date by default): The end date for the cumulative total profit or loss calculation. It defaults to the current date but can be set to a specific date for backtesting purposes.
Script Mechanics:
Buy Signal Logic: A buy signal is generated when the closing price is below the highest price of the last 'length' days, adjusted by the 'percentage_drop'.
Profit/Loss Calculation: For each buy signal, the script calculates the profit or loss percentage after 'hold_days' from the purchase. This is displayed on the chart for each trade.
Total P/L Display: The script calculates and displays the cumulative total profit or loss in the defined period (from 'start_period' to 'end_period') in a label on the chart.
Usage:
This script is useful for traders who follow a strategy based on buying assets after significant price drops and holding for a predetermined period. It automates the detection of potential buy opportunities and the calculation of profit or loss, aiding in decision-making and performance analysis.
ICT HTF MSS & Liquidity (fadi)ICT HTF MSS & Liquidity provides higher timeframe view of where the liquidity may reside and when higher timeframe market structure shift has occurred.
In his 2022 mentorship, ICT has advocated used the 15m chart to watch for liquidity and looking for lower timeframes for entry (5m,4m,3m,2m,1m).
Liquidity will reside above pivot points and ICT pivot points are based on 3 candle formation for the short term, three short term formation for intermediate, and three intermediate formation for the long terms.
Options
Timeframe Timeframe to monitor
Use the Short, Intermediate, or Long Term highs and lows
Liquidity Styles
Open liquidity line style, size, and color
Claimed liquidity line style, size, and color
Extend the open liquidity line beyond the current candle
Number of lines to display, this includes claimed and open
VAcc (Velocity & Acceleration)VAcc (Velocity & Acceleration) is a momentum indicator published by Scott Cong in Stocks & Commodities V. 41:09 (8–15). It applies concepts from physics, namely velocity and acceleration, to financial markets. VAcc functions similarly to the popular MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator when using a longer lookback period, but produces more responsive results. With shorter periods, VAcc exhibits characteristics reminiscent of the stochastic oscillator.
🟠 Algorithm
The average velocity over the past n periods is defined as
((C - C_n) / n + (C - C_{n-1}) / (n - 1) + … + (C - C_i) / i + (C - C_1) / 1) / n
At its core, the velocity is a weighted average of the rate of change over the past n periods.
The calculation of the acceleration follows a similar process, where it’s defined as
((V - V_n) / n + (V - V_{n - 1}) / (n - 1) + … + (V - V_i) / i + (V - V_1) / 1) / n
🟠 Comparison with MACD
A comparison of VAcc and MACD on the daily Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart from August 2022 helps demonstrate VAcc's improved sensitivity. Both indicators utilized a lookback period of 26 days and smoothing of 9 periods.
The VAcc histogram clearly shows a divergence forming, with momentum weakening as prices reached new highs. In contrast, the corresponding MACD histogram significantly lagged in confirming the divergence, highlighting VAcc's ability to identify subtle shifts in trend momentum more immediately than the traditional MACD.
[Library] VAccThis is the library version of VAcc (Velocity & Acceleration), a momentum indicator published by Scott Cong in Stocks & Commodities V. 41:09 (8–15). It applies concepts from physics, namely velocity and acceleration, to financial markets. VAcc functions similarly to the popular MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator when using a longer lookback period, but produces more responsive results. With shorter periods, VAcc exhibits characteristics reminiscent of the stochastic oscillator.
The indicator version of this algorithm is linked below:
🟠 Algorithm
The average velocity over the past n periods is defined as
((C - C_n) / n + (C - C_{n-1}) / (n - 1) + … + (C - C_i) / i + (C - C_1) / 1) / n
At its core, the velocity is a weighted average of the rate of change over the past n periods.
The calculation of the acceleration follows a similar process, where it’s defined as
((V - V_n) / n + (V - V_{n - 1}) / (n - 1) + … + (V - V_i) / i + (V - V_1) / 1) / n
🟠 Comparison with MACD
A comparison of VAcc and MACD on the daily Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart from August 2022 helps demonstrate VAcc's improved sensitivity. Both indicators utilized a lookback period of 26 days and smoothing of 9 periods.
The VAcc histogram clearly shows a divergence forming, with momentum weakening as prices reached new highs. In contrast, the corresponding MACD histogram significantly lagged in confirming the divergence, highlighting VAcc's ability to identify subtle shifts in trend momentum more immediately than the traditional MACD.
Volatility Adjusted MACDMACD, short for moving average convergence/divergence, is a trading indicator used in technical analysis of securities prices, created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price.
The MACD indicator (or "oscillator") is a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, most often the closing price. These three series are: the MACD series proper, the "signal" or "average" series, and the "divergence" series which is the difference between the two. The MACD series is the difference between a "fast" (short period) exponential moving average (EMA), and a "slow" (longer period) EMA of the price series. The average series is an EMA of the MACD series itself.
This version of MACD follows the work of Alex Spiroglou, DipTA(ATAA), CFTe in his 2022 paper that was awarded Charles H. Dow Award by CMT Association . The paper is available on papers.ssrn.com or on website.of CMT Association.
Please refer to the paper for details on construction and trading rules . I personally find the volatility adjusted version as described in this paper more responsive in terms of signals and divergences.
MACDh with divergences & impulse system (overlayed on prices)-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the top panel above ) consists on some lines, arrows and labels drawn over the price bars/candles indicating the detection of regular divergences between price and the classic MACD histogram (shown on the low panel). This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra features" Impulse System and Keltner Channels, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
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Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
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Some cool features included in this indicator:
1. This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Price bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Price Bar or Green Price Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green price bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red price bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue price bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
2. Another "extra feature" included here is the " Keltner Channels ". Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
3. It were also included a couple of EMAs.
Everything can be removed from the chart any time.
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Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*Shows a pair of EMAs.
*Shows Keltner Channels (using ATR)
Keltner Channels are volatility-based envelopes set above and below an exponential moving average.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the price bars/candles.
MACDh with divergences & impulse system-----------------------------------------------------------------
General Description:
This indicator ( the one on the low panel ) is a classic MACD that also shows regular divergences between its histogram and the prices. This script is special because it can be adjusted to fit several criteria when trading divergences filtering them according to the "height" and "width" of the patterns. The script also includes the "extra feature" Impulse System, which you will hardly find anywhere else in similar classic MACD histogram divergence indicators.
The indicator helps to find trend reversals, and it works on any market, any instrument, any timeframe, and any market condition (except against really strong trends that do not show any other sign of reversion yet).
Please take on consideration that divergences should be taken with caution.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Definition of classic Bullish and Bearish divergences:
* Bearish divergences occur in uptrends identifying market tops. A classical or regular bearish divergence occurs when prices reach a new high and then pull back, with an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) dropping below its zero line. Prices stabilize and rally to a higher high, but the oscillator reaches a lower peak than it did on a previous rally.
In the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), in area X (around August 2021), NKE rallied to a new bull market high and MACD-Histogram rallied with it, rising above its previous peak and showing that bulls were extremely strong. In area Y, MACD-H fell below its centerline and at the same time prices punched below the zone between the two moving averages. In area Z, NKE rallied to a new bull market high, but the rally of MACD-H was feeble, reflecting the bulls’ weakness. Its downtick from peak Z completed a bearish divergence, giving a strong sell signal and auguring a nasty bear market.
* Bullish divergences , in the other hand, occur towards the ends of downtrends identifying market bottoms. A classical (also called regular) bullish divergence occurs when prices and an oscillator (MACD histogram in this case) both fall to a new low, rally, with the oscillator rising above its zero line, then both fall again. This time, prices drop to a lower low, but the oscillator traces a higher bottom than during its previous decline.
In the example in the chart above (weekly charts of NKE, Nike, Inc.), you see a bearish divergence that signaled the October 2022 bear market bottom, giving a strong buy signal right near the lows. In area A, NKE (weekly charts) appeared in a free fall. The record low A of MACD-H indicated that bears were extremely strong. In area B, MACD-H rallied above its centerline. Notice the brief rally of prices at that moment. In area C, NKE slid to a new bear market low, but MACD-H traced a much more shallow low. Its uptick completed a bullish divergence, giving a strong buy signal.
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Extra feature: Impulse System
This indicator also includes the “ Impulse System ”. The Impulse System is based on two indicators, a 13-day exponential moving average and the MACD-Histogram, and identifies inflection points where a trend speeds up or slows down. The moving average identifies the trend, while the MACD-Histogram measures momentum. This unique indicator combination is color coded into the price bars or macd histogram bars for easy reference.
Calculation:
Green Price Bar: (13-period EMA > previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram > previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Red Price Bar: (13-period EMA < previous 13-period EMA) and
(MACD-Histogram < previous period's MACD-Histogram)
Histogram bars are colored blue when conditions for a Red Histogram Bar or Green Histogram Bar are not met. The MACD-Histogram is based on MACD(12,26,9).
The Impulse System works more like a censorship system. Green histogram bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising (you don't have permission to sell). A red histogram bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD Histogram are falling (you don't have permission to buy). A blue histogram bar indicates mixed technical signals, with neither buying nor selling pressure predominating (either both buying or selling are permitted).
The impulse system can be removed from the chart any time.
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Options/adjustments for this indicator:
*Horizontal Distance (width) between two tops/bottoms criteria.
Refers to the horizontal distance between the MACH histogram peaks involved in the divergence
*Height of tops/bottoms criteria (for Histogram).
Refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the MACH HISTOGRAM peaks involved in the divergence: 1st Histogram Peak is X times the 2nd.
*Height/Vertical deviation of tops/bottoms criteria (for Price).
Deviation refers to the difference/relation/vertical distance between the PRICE peaks involved in the divergence.
*Plot Regular Bullish Divergences?.
*Plot Regular Bearish Divergences?.
*Delete Previous Cancelled Divergences?.
*This indicator also has the option to show the Impulse System over the MACD histogram bars
Volume ValueWhen VelocityTitle: Volume ValueWhen Velocity Trading Strategy
▶ Introduction:
The " Volume ValueWhen Velocity " trading strategy is designed to generate long position signals based on various technical conditions, including volume thresholds, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and price action relative to the Simple Moving Average (SMA). The strategy aims to identify potential buy opportunities when specific criteria are met, helping traders capitalize on potential bullish movements.
▶ How to use and conditions
★ Important : Only on Spot Binance BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Name: Volume ValueWhen Velocity
Operating mode: Long on Spot BINANCE BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Timeframe: Only one hour
Market: Crypto
currency: Bitcoin only
Signal type: Medium or short term
Entry: All sections in the Technical Indicators and Conditions section must be saved to enter (This is explained below)
Exit: Based on loss limit and profit limit It is removed in the settings section
Backtesting:
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE BINANCE:BTCUSDT
⁃ Pair: BTCUSDT
⁃ Timeframe:1h
⁃ Fee: 0.1%
- Initial Capital: 1,000 USDT
- Position sizing: 500 usdt
-Trading Range: 2022-07-01 11:30 ___ 2023-07-21 14:30
▶ Strategy Settings and Parameters:
1. `strategy(title='Volume ValueWhen Velocity', ...`: Sets the strategy title, initial capital, default quantity type, default quantity value, commission value, and trading currency.
↬ Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Settings:
1. long_stoploss_value and long_stoploss_percentage : Define the stop-loss percentage for long positions.
2. long_takeprofit_value and long_takeprofit_percentage : Define the take-profit percentage for long positions.
↬ ValueWhen Occurrence Parameters:
1. occurrence_ValueWhen_1 and occurrence_ValueWhen_2 : Control the occurrences of value events.
2. `distance_value`: Specifies the minimum distance between occurrences of ValueWhen 1 and ValueWhen 2.
↬ RSI Settings:
1. rsi_over_sold and rsi_length : Define the oversold level and RSI length for RSI calculations.
↬ Volume Thresholds:
1. volume_threshold1 , volume_threshold2 , and volume_threshold3 : Set the volume thresholds for multiple volume conditions.
↬ ATR (Average True Range) Settings:
1. atr_small and atr_big : Specify the periods used to calculate the Average True Range.
▶ Date Range for Back-Testing:
1. start_date, end_date, start_month, end_month, start_year, and end_year : Define the date range for back-testing the strategy.
▶ Technical Indicators and Conditions:
1. rsi: Calculates the Relative Strength Index (RSI) based on the defined RSI length and the closing prices.
2. was_over_sold: Checks if the RSI was oversold in the last 10 bars.
3. getVolume and getVolume2 : Custom functions to retrieve volume data for specific bars.
4. firstCandleColor : Evaluates the color of the first candle based on different timeframes.
5. sma : Calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the closing price over 13 periods.
6. numCandles : Counts the number of candles since the close price crossed above the SMA.
7. atr1 : Checks if the ATR_small is less than ATR_big for the specified security and timeframe.
8. prevClose, prevCloseBarsAgo, and prevCloseChange : ValueWhen functions to calculate the change in the close price between specific occurrences.
9. atrval: A condition based on the ATR_value3.
▶ Buy Signal Condition:
Condition: A combination of multiple volume conditions.
buy_signal: The final buy signal condition that considers various technical conditions and their interactions.
▶ Long Strategy Execution:
1. The strategy will enter a long position (buy) when the buy_signal condition is met and within the specified date range.
2. A stop-loss and take-profit will be set for the long position to manage risk and potential profits.
▶ Conclusion:
The " Volume ValueWhen Velocity " trading strategy is designed to identify long position opportunities based on a combination of volume conditions, RSI, and price action. The strategy aims to capitalize on potential bullish movements and utilizes a stop-loss and take-profit mechanism to manage risk and optimize potential returns. Traders can use this strategy as a starting point for their own trading systems or further customize it to suit their preferences and risk appetite. It is crucial to thoroughly back-test and validate any trading strategy before deploying it in live markets.
↯ Disclaimer:
Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Yesterday's High v.17.07Yesterday’s High Breakout it is a trading system based on the analysis of yesterday's highs, it works in trend-following mode therefore it opens a long position at the breakout of yesterday's highs even if they occur several times in one day.
There are several methods for exiting a trade, each with its own unique strategy. The first method involves setting Take-Profit and Stop-Loss percentages, while the second utilizes a trailing-stop with a specified offset value. The third method calls for a conditional exit when the candle closes below a reference EMA.
Additionally, operational filters can be applied based on the volatility of the currency pair, such as calculating the percentage change from the opening or incorporating a gap to the previous day's high levels. These filters help to anticipate or delay entry into the market, mitigating the risk of false breakouts.
In the specific case of INJ, a 12% Take-Profit and a 1.5% Stop-Loss were set, with an activated trailing-stop percentage, TRL 1 and OFF 0.5.
To postpone entry and avoid false breakouts, a 1% gap was added to the price of yesterday's highs.
Name: Yesterday's High Breakout - Trend Follower Strategy
Author: @tumiza999
Category: Trend Follower, Breakout of Yesterday's High.
Operating mode: Spot or Futures (only long).
Trade duration: Intraday.
Timeframe: 30M, 1H, 2H, 4H
Market: Crypto
Suggested usage: Short-term trading, when the market is in trend and it is showing high volatility.
Entry: When there is a breakout of Yesterday's High.
Exit: Profit target or Trailing stop, Stop loss or Crossunder EMA.
Configuration:
- Gap to anticipate or postpone the entry before or after the identified level
- Rate of Change for Entry Condition
- Take Profit, Stop Loss and Trailing Stop
- EMA length
Backtesting:
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE
⁃ Pair: INJUSDT
⁃ Timeframe: 4H
- Treshold: 1
- Gap%: 1
- SL: 1.5
- TP:12
- TRL: 1
- OFF-TRL: 0.5
⁃ Fee: 0.075%
⁃ Slippage: 1
- Initial Capital: 10000 USDT
- Position sizing: 10% of Equity
- Start : 2018-07-26 (Out Of Sample from 2022-12-23)
- Bar magnifier: on
Credits: LucF for Pine Coders (f_security function to avoid repainting using security)
Disclaimer: Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Modern Portfolio Management IndicatorAfter weeks of grueling over this indicator, I am excited to be releasing it!
Intro:
This is not a sexy, technical or math based indicator that will give you buy and sell signals or anything fancy, but it is an indicator that I created in hopes to bridge a gap I have noticed. That gap is the lack of indicators and technical resources for those who also like to plan their investments. This indicator is tailored to those who are either established investors and to those who are looking to get into investing but don't really know where to start.
The premise of this indicator is based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Before we get into the indicator itself, I think its important to provide a quick synopsis of MPT.
About MPT:
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is an investment framework that was developed by Harry Markowitz in the 1950s. It is based on the idea that an investor can optimize their investment portfolio by considering the trade-off between risk and return. MPT emphasizes diversification and holds that the risk of an individual asset should be assessed in the context of its contribution to the overall portfolio's risk. The theory suggests that by diversifying investments across different asset classes with varying levels of risk, an investor can achieve a more efficient portfolio that maximizes returns for a given level of risk or minimizes risk for a desired level of return. MPT also introduced the concept of the efficient frontier, which represents the set of portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a given level of risk. MPT has been widely adopted and used by investors, financial advisors, and portfolio managers to construct and manage portfolios.
So how does this indicator help with MPT?
The thinking and theory that went behind this indicator was this: I wanted an indicator, or really just a "way" to test and back-test ticker performance over time and under various circumstances and help manage risk.
Over the last 3 years we have seen a massive bull market, followed by a pretty huge bear market, followed by a very unexpected bull market. We have been and continue to be plagued with economic and political uncertainty that seems to constantly be looming over everyone with each waking day. Some people have liquidated their retirement investments, while others are fomoing in to catch this current bull run. But which tickers are sound and how tickers and funds have compared amongst each other remains somewhat difficult to ascertain, absent manually reviewing and calculating each ticker individually.
That is where this indicator comes in. This indicator permits the user to define up to 5 equities that they are potentially interested in investing in, or are already invested in. The user can then select a specific period in time, say from the beginning of 2022 till now. The user can then define how much they want to invest in each company by number of shares, so if they want to buy 1 share a week, or 2 shares a month, they can input these variables into the indicator to draw conclusions. As many brokers are also now permitting fractional share trading, this ability is also integrated into the indicator. So for shares, you can put in, say, 0.25 shares of SPY and the indicator will accept this and account for this fractional share.
The indicator will then show you a portfolio summary of what your earnings and returns would be for the defined period. It will provide a percent return as well as the projected P&L based on your desired investment amount and frequency.
But it goes beyond just that, you can also have the indicator display a simple forecasting projection of the portfolio. It will show the projected P&L and % Return over various periods in time on each of the ticker (see image below):
The indicator will also break down your portfolio allocation, it will show where the majority of your holdings are and where the majority of your P&L in coming from (best performers will show a green fill and worst will show a red fill, see image below):
This colour coding also extends to the portfolio breakdown itself.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is incorporated into the indicator itself, by assuming ongoing contributions. If you want to stop contributions at a certain point, you just select your end time for contributions at the point in which you would stop contributing.
The indicator also provides some basic fundamental information about the company tickers (if applicable). Simply select the "Fundamental" chart and it will display a breakdown of the fundamentals, including dividends paid, market cap and earnings yield:
The indicator also provides a correlation assessment of each holding against each other holding. This emphasizes the profound role of diversification on portfolios. The less correlation you have in your portfolio among your holdings, the better diversified you are. As well, if you have holdings that are perfectly inverse other holdings, you have a pseudo hedge against the downturn of one of your holdings. This is even more helpful if the inverse is a company with solid fundamentals.
In the below example you will see NASDAQ:IRDM in the portfolio. You will be able to see that NASDAQ:IRDM has a slight inverse relationship to SPY:
Yet IRDM has solid fundamentals and is performing well fundamentally. Thus, this makes IRDIM a solid addition to your portfolio as it can potentially hedge against a downturn for SPY and is less risky than simply holding an inverse leveraged share on SPY which is most likely just going to cost you money than make you money.
Concluding remarks:
There are many fun and interesting things you can do with this indicator and I encourage you to try it out and have fun with it! The overall objective with the indicator is to help you plan for your portfolio and not necessarily to manage your portfolio. If you have a few stocks you are looking at and contemplating investing in, this will help you run some theoretical scenarios with this stock based on historical performance and also help give you a feel of how it will perform in the future based on past behaviour.
It is important to remember that past behaviour does not indicate future behaviour, but the indicator provides you with tools to get a feel for how a stock has performed under various circumstances and get a general feel of the fundamentals of the company you could potentially be investing in.
Please note, this indicator is not meant to replace full, fundamental analyses of individual companies. It is simply meant to give you a "gist" of how companies are fundamentally and how they have performed historically.
I hope you enjoy it!
Safe trades everyone!
MA Correlation CoefficientThis script helps you visualize the correlation between the price of an asset and 4 moving averages of your choice. This indicator can help you identify trendy markets as well as trend-shifts.
Disclaimer
Bear in mind that there is always some lag when using Moving-Averages, hence the purpose of this indicator is as a trend identification tool rather than an entry-exit strategy.
Working Principle
The basic idea behind this indicator is the following:
In a trendy market you will find high correlation between price and all kinds of Moving-Averages. This works both ways, no matter bull or bear trend.
In sideways markets you might find a mix of correlations accross timeframes (2018) or high correlation with Low-Timeframe averages and low correlation with High-Timeframe averages (2021/2022).
Trend shifts might be characterised by a 'staircase' type of correlation (yellow), where the asset regains correlation with higher timeframe averages
Indicator Options
1. Source : data used for indicator calculation
1. Correlation Window : size of moving window for correlation calculation
2. Average Type :
Simple-Moving-Average (SMA)
Exponential-Moving-Average (EMA)
Hull-Moving-Average (HMA)
Volume-Weighted-Moving-Average (VWMA)
3. Lookback : number of past candles to calculate average
4. Gradient : modify gradient colors. colors relate to correlation values.
Plot Explanation
The indicator plots, using colors, the correlation of the asset with 4 averages. For every candle, 4 correlation values are generated, corresponding to 4 colors. These 4 colors are stacked one on top of the other generating the patterns explained above. These patterns may help you identify what kind of market you're in.
Bollinger Bands - Breakout StrategyThe Bollinger Bands - Breakout Strategy is a trend-following optimized for short-term trading in the crypto market. This strategy employs the Bollinger Bands, a widely recognized technical indicator, as its primary instrument for pinpointing potential trades. It is capable of executing both long and short positions, depending on whether the market is in a spot or futures, and is particularly effective in trending markets.
The strategy boasts a high degree of configurability, allowing users to set the Bollinger Bands period and deviation, trend filter, volatility filter, trade direction filter, rate of change filter, and date filter. Furthermore, it offers options for Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Trailing Stop for both long and short positions, ensuring a comprehensive risk management approach. The inclusion of a maximum intraday loss feature adds another layer of protection, making this strategy a valuable tool for traders seeking a professional and adaptable trading system.
Name : Bollinger Bands - Breakout Strategy
Category : Trend Follower based on Bollinger Bands
Operating mode : Long and Short on Futures or Long on Spot
Trade duration : Intraday
Timeframe : 2H, 3H, 4H, 5H
Market : Crypto
Suggested usage : Trending Markets
Entry : When the price crosses above or below the Bollinger Bands
Exit : Opposite Cross or Profit target, Trailing stop or Stop loss
Configuration :
- Bollinger Bands period and deviation
- Trend Filter
- Volatility Filter
- Trade direction filter
- Rate of Change filter
- Date Filter (for backtesting purposes)
- Take Profit, Stop Loss and Trailing Stop for long and short positions
- Risk Management: Max Intraday Loss
Backtesting :
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE
⁃ Pair: BTCUSDT.P
⁃ Timeframe: 4H
⁃ Fee: 0.025%
⁃ Slippage: 1
- Initial Capital: 10000 USDT
- Position sizing: 10% of Equity
- Start : 2019-09-19 (Out Of Sample from 2022-12-23)
- Bar magnifier: on
Credits :
- LucF of Pine Coders for f_security function to avoid repainting using security.
- QuantNomad for Monthly Table.
Disclaimer : Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Yesterday’s High Breakout - Trend Following StrategyYesterday’s High Breakout it is a trading system based on the analysis of yesterday's highs, it works in trend-following mode therefore it opens a long position at the breakout of yesterday's highs even if they occur several times in one day.
There are several methods for exiting a trade, each with its own unique strategy. The first method involves setting Take-Profit and Stop-Loss percentages, while the second utilizes a trailing-stop with a specified offset value. The third method calls for a conditional exit when the candle closes below a reference EMA.
Additionally, operational filters can be applied based on the volatility of the currency pair, such as calculating the percentage change from the opening or incorporating a gap to the previous day's high levels. These filters help to anticipate or delay entry into the market, mitigating the risk of false breakouts.
In the specific case of NULS, a 9% Take-Profit and a 3% Stop-Loss were set, with an activated trailing-stop percentage. To postpone entry and avoid false breakouts, a 1% gap was added to the price of yesterday's highs.
Name : Yesterday's High Breakout - Trend Follower Strategy
Author : @tumiza999
Category : Trend Follower, Breakout of Yesterday's High.
Operating mode : Spot or Futures (only long).
Trade duration : Intraday.
Timeframe : 30M, 1H, 2H, 4H
Market : Crypto
Suggested usage : Short-term trading, when the market is in trend and it is showing high volatility.
Entry : When there is a breakout of Yesterday's High.
Exit : Profit target or Trailing stop, Stop loss or Crossunder EMA.
Configuration :
- Gap to anticipate or postpone the entry before or after the identified level
- Rate of Change for Entry Condition
- Take Profit, Stop Loss and Trailing Stop
- EMA length
Backtesting :
⁃ Exchange: BINANCE
⁃ Pair: NULSUSDT
⁃ Timeframe: 2H
⁃ Fee: 0.075%
⁃ Slippage: 1
- Initial Capital: 10000 USDT
- Position sizing: 10% of Equity
- Start : 2018-07-26 (Out Of Sample from 2022-12-23)
- Bar magnifier: on
Credits : LucF for Pine Coders (f_security function to avoid repainting using security)
Disclaimer : Risk Management is crucial, so adjust stop loss to your comfort level. A tight stop loss can help minimise potential losses. Use at your own risk.
How you or we can improve? Source code is open so share your ideas!
Leave a comment and smash the boost button!
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Simple ICT Market Structure by toodegreesThis Simple ICT Market Structure is based on the teachings of ICT, specifically in his episode 12 of the Public 2022 Mentorship.
The only omission here is the peculiar calculation of Intermediate Term points, for which I am not using the concept of repricing imbalances – this can be added later!
Feel free to use this tool, however it is quite simple and market structure is something we all know very well how to spot. In my opinion it is helpful to display the long term swing points to identify more mature pools of liquidity.
The reason for coding this tool is to help new coders understand PineScript (I have a video tutorial where I code this from start to finish), as well as fostering some algorithmic thinking in your trading of ICT Concepts and Algorithmic Delivery.
If you have any questions about the code, shoot me a message!
Hope you learn something and GLGT!
Lorentzian Classification Strategy Based in the model of Machine learning: Lorentzian Classification by @jdehorty, you will be able to get into trending moves and get interesting entries in the market with this strategy. I also put some new features for better backtesting results!
Backtesting context: 2022-07-19 to 2023-04-14 of US500 1H by PEPPERSTONE. Commissions: 0.03% for each entry, 0.03% for each exit. Risk per trade: 2.5% of the total account
For this strategy, 3 indicators are used:
Machine learning: Lorentzian Classification by @jdehorty
One Ema of 200 periods for identifying the trend
Supertrend indicator as a filter for some exits
Atr stop loss from Gatherio
Trade conditions:
For longs:
Close price is above 200 Ema
Lorentzian Classification indicates a buying signal
This gives us our long signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as buy.
The other half will be closed when the model indicates a selling signal or Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal. This will be showed as cl buy.
For shorts:
Close price is under 200 Ema
Lorentzian Classification indicates a selling signal
This gives us our short signal. Stop loss will be determined by atr stop loss (white point), break even(blue point) by a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 and take profit of 3:1 where half position will be closed. This will be showed as sell.
The other half will be closed when the model indicates a buying signal or Supertrend indicator gives a bullish signal. This will be showed as cl sell.
Risk management
To calculate the amount of the position you will use just a small percent of your initial capital for the strategy and you will use the atr stop loss or last swing for this.
Example: You have 1000 usd and you just want to risk 2,5% of your account, there is a buy signal at price of 4,000 usd. The stop loss price from atr stop loss or last swing is 3,900. You calculate the distance in percent between 4,000 and 3,900. In this case, that distance would be of 2.50%. Then, you calculate your position by this way: (initial or current capital * risk per trade of your account) / (stop loss distance).
Using these values on the formula: (1000*2,5%)/(2,5%) = 1000usd. It means, you have to use 1000 usd for risking 2.5% of your account.
We will use this risk management for applying compound interest.
> In settings, with position amount calculator, you can enter the amount in usd of your account and the amount in percentage for risking per trade of the account. You will see this value in green color in the upper left corner that shows the amount in usd to use for risking the specific percentage of your account.
> You can also choose a fixed amount, so you will have to activate fixed amount in risk management for trades and set the fixed amount for backtesting.
Script functions
Inside of settings, you will find some utilities for display atr stop loss, break evens, positions, signals, indicators, a table of some stats from backtesting, etc.
You will find the settings for risk management at the end of the script if you want to change something or trying new values for other assets for backtesting.
If you want to change the initial capital for backtest the strategy, go to properties, and also enter the commisions of your exchange and slippage for more realistic results.
In risk managment you can find an option called "Use leverage ?", activate this if you want to backtest using leverage, which means that in case of not having enough money for risking the % determined by you of your account using your initial capital, you will use leverage for using the enough amount for risking that % of your acount in a buy position. Otherwise, the amount will be limited by your initial/current capital
I also added a function for backtesting if you had added or withdrawn money frequently:
Adding money: You can choose how often you want to add money (Monthly, yearly, daily or weekly). Then a fixed amount of money and activate or deactivate this function
Withdraw money: You can choose if you want to withdraw a fixed amount or a percentage of earnings. Then you can choose a fixed amount of money, the period of time and activate or deactivate this function. Also, the percentage of earnings if you choosed this option.
Some other assets where strategy has worked
BTCUSD 4H, 1D
ETHUSD 4H, 1D
BNBUSD 4H
SPX 1D
BANKNIFTY 4H, 15 min
Some things to consider
USE UNDER YOUR OWN RISK. PAST RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE FUTURE.
DEPENDING OF % ACCOUNT RISK PER TRADE, YOU COULD REQUIRE LEVERAGE FOR OPEN SOME POSITIONS, SO PLEASE, BE CAREFULL AND USE CORRECTLY THE RISK MANAGEMENT
Do not forget to change commissions and other parameters related with back testing results!. If you have problems loading the script reduce max bars back number in general settings
Strategies for trending markets use to have more looses than wins and it takes a long time to get profits, so do not forget to be patient and consistent !
Please, visit the post from @jdehorty called Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification for a better understanding of his script!
Any support and boosts will be well received. If you have any question, do not doubt to ask!
ICT Concepts [LuxAlgo]The ICT Concepts indicator regroups core concepts highlighted by trader and educator "The Inner Circle Trader" (ICT) into an all-in-one toolkit. Features include Market Structure (MSS & BOS), Order Blocks, Imbalances, Buyside/Sellside Liquidity, Displacements, ICT Killzones, and New Week/Day Opening Gaps.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Mode
When Present is selected, only data of the latest 500 bars are used/visualized, except for NWOG/NDOG
🔹 Market Structure
Enable/disable Market Structure.
Length: will set the lookback period/sensitivity.
In Present Mode only the latest Market Structure trend will be shown, while in Historical Mode, previous trends will be shown as well:
You can toggle MSS/BOS separately and change the colors:
🔹 Displacement
Enable/disable Displacement.
🔹 Volume Imbalance
Enable/disable Volume Imbalance.
# Visible VI's: sets the amount of visible Volume Imbalances (max 100), color setting is placed at the side.
🔹 Order Blocks
Enable/disable Order Blocks.
Swing Lookback: Lookback period used for the detection of the swing points used to create order blocks.
Show Last Bullish OB: Number of the most recent bullish order/breaker blocks to display on the chart.
Show Last Bearish OB: Number of the most recent bearish order/breaker blocks to display on the chart.
Color settings.
Show Historical Polarity Changes: Allows users to see labels indicating where a swing high/low previously occurred within a breaker block.
Use Candle Body: Allows users to use candle bodies as order block areas instead of the full candle range.
Change in Order Blocks style:
🔹 Liquidity
Enable/disable Liquidity.
Margin: sets the sensitivity, 2 points are fairly equal when:
'point 1' < 'point 2' + (10 bar Average True Range / (10 / margin)) and
'point 1' > 'point 2' - (10 bar Average True Range / (10 / margin))
# Visible Liq. boxes: sets the amount of visible Liquidity boxes (max 50), this amount is for Sellside and Buyside boxes separately.
Colour settings.
Change in Liquidity style:
🔹 Fair Value Gaps
Enable/disable FVG's.
Balance Price Range: this is the overlap of latest bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps.
By disabling Balance Price Range only FVGs will be shown.
Options: Choose whether you wish to see FVG or Implied Fair Value Gaps (this will impact Balance Price Range as well)
# Visible FVG's: sets the amount of visible FVG's (max 20, in the same direction).
Color settings.
Change in FVG style:
🔹 NWOG/NDOG
Enable/disable NWOG; color settings; amount of NWOG shown (max 50).
Enable/disable NDOG ; color settings; amount of NDOG shown (max 50).
🔹 Fibonacci
This tool connects the 2 most recent bullish/bearish (if applicable) features of your choice, provided they are enabled.
3 examples (FVG, BPR, OB):
Extend lines -> Enabled (example OB):
🔹 Killzones
Enable/disable all or the ones you need.
Time settings are coded in the corresponding time zones.
🔶 USAGE
By default, the indicator displays each feature relevant to the most recent price variations in order to avoid clutter on the chart & to provide a very similar experience to how a user would contruct ICT Concepts by hand.
Users can use the historical mode in the settings to see historical market structure/imbalances. The ICT Concepts indicator has various use cases, below we outline many examples of how a trader could find usage of the features together.
In the above image we can see price took out Sellside liquidity, filled two bearish FVGs, a market structure shift, which then led to a clean retest of a bullish FVG as a clean setup to target the order block above.
Price then fills the OB which creates a breaker level as seen in yellow.
Broken OBs can be useful for a trader using the ICT Concepts indicator as it marks a level where orders have now been filled, indicating a solidified level that has proved itself as an area of liquidity. In the image above we can see a trade setup using a broken bearish OB as a potential entry level.
We can see the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) above was an optimal level to target considering price may tend to fill / react off of these levels according to ICT.
In the next image above, we have another example of various use cases where the ICT Concepts indicator hypothetically allow traders to find key levels & find optimal entry points using market structure.
In the image above we can see a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) is confirmed, indicating a potential trade setup for targeting the Balanced Price Range imbalance (BPR) below with a stop loss above the buyside liquidity.
Although what we are demonstrating here is a hindsight example, it shows the potential usage this toolkit gives you for creating trading plans based on ICT Concepts.
Same chart but playing out the history further we can see directly after price came down to the Sellside liquidity & swept below it...
Then by enabling IFVGs in the settings, we can see the IFVG retests alongside the Sellside & Buyside liquidity acting in confluence.
Which allows us to see a great bullish structure in the market with various key levels for potential entries.
Here we can see a potential bullish setup as price has taken out a previous Sellside liquidity zone and is now retesting a NWOG + Volume Imbalance.
Users also have the option to display Fibonacci retracements based on market structure, order blocks, and imbalance areas, which can help place limit/stop orders more effectively as well as finding optimal points of interest beyond what the primary ICT Concepts features can generate for a trader.
In the above image we can see the Fibonacci extension was selected to be based on the NWOG giving us some upside levels above the buyside liquidity.
🔶 DETAILS
Each feature within the ICT Concepts indicator is described in the sub sections below.
🔹 Market Structure
Market structure labels are constructed from price breaking a prior swing point. This allows a user to determine the current market trend based on the price action.
There are two types of Market Structure labels included:
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Break Of Structure (BOS)
A MSS occurs when price breaks a swing low in an uptrend or a swing high in a downtrend, highlighting a potential reversal. This is often labeled as "CHoCH", but ICT specifies it as MSS.
On the other hand, BOS labels occur when price breaks a swing high in an uptrend or a swing low in a downtrend. The occurrence of these particular swing points is caused by retracements (inducements) that highlights liquidity hunting in lower timeframes.
🔹 Order Blocks
More significant market participants (institutions) with the ability of placing large orders in the market will generally place a sequence of individual trades spread out in time. This is referred as executing what is called a "meta-order".
Order blocks highlight the area where potential meta-orders are executed. Bullish order blocks are located near local bottoms in an uptrend while bearish order blocks are located near local tops in a downtrend.
When price mitigates (breaks out) an order block, a breaker block is confirmed. We can eventually expect price to trade back to this breaker block offering a new trade opportunity.
🔹 Buyside & Sellside Liquidity
Buyside / Sellside liquidity levels highlight price levels where market participants might place limit/stop orders.
Buyside liquidity levels will regroup the stoploss orders of short traders as well as limit orders of long traders, while Sellside liquidity levels will regroup the stoploss orders of long traders as well as limit orders of short traders.
These levels can play different roles. More informed market participants might view these levels as source of liquidity, and once liquidity over a specific level is reduced it will be found in another area.
🔹 Imbalances
Imbalances highlight disparities between the bid/ask, these can also be defined as inefficiencies, which would suggest that not all available information is reflected by the price and would as such provide potential trading opportunities.
It is common for price to "rebalance" and seek to come back to a previous imbalance area.
ICT highlights multiple imbalance formations:
Fair Value Gaps: A three candle formation where the candle shadows adjacent to the central candle do not overlap, this highlights a gap area.
Implied Fair Value Gaps: Unlike the fair value gap the implied fair value gap has candle shadows adjacent to the central candle overlapping. The gap area is constructed from the average between the respective shadow and the nearest extremity of their candle body.
Balanced Price Range: Balanced price ranges occur when a fair value gap overlaps a previous fair value gap, with the overlapping area resulting in the imbalance area.
Volume Imbalance: Volume imbalances highlight gaps between the opening price and closing price with existing trading activity (the low/high overlap the previous high/low).
Opening Gap: Unlike volume imbalances opening gaps highlight areas with no trading activity. The low/high does not reach previous high/low, highlighting a "void" area.
🔹 Displacement
Displacements are scenarios where price forms successive candles of the same sentiment (bullish/bearish) with large bodies and short shadows.
These can more technically be identified by positive auto correlation (a close to open change is more likely to be followed by a change of the same sign) as well as volatility clustering (large changes are followed by large changes).
Displacements can be the cause for the formation of imbalances as well as market structure, these can be caused by the full execution of a meta order.
🔹 Kill Zones
Killzones represent different time intervals that aims at offering optimal trade entries. Killzones include:
- New York Killzone (7:9 ET)
- London Open Killzone (2:5 ET)
- London Close Killzone (10:12 ET)
- Asian Killzone (20:00 ET)
🔶 Conclusion & Supplementary Material
This script aims to emulate how a trader would draw each of the covered features on their chart in the most precise representation to how it's actually taught by ICT directly.
There are many parallels between ICT Concepts and Smart Money Concepts that we released in 2022 which has a more general & simpler usage:
ICT Concepts, however, is more specifically aligned toward the community's interpretation of how to analyze price 'based on ICT', rather than displaying features to have a more classic interpretation for a technical analyst.
MarkovChainLibrary "MarkovChain"
Generic Markov Chain type functions.
---
A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the
probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.
---
reference:
Understanding Markov Chains, Examples and Applications. Second Edition. Book by Nicolas Privault.
en.wikipedia.org
www.geeksforgeeks.org
towardsdatascience.com
github.com
stats.stackexchange.com
timeseriesreasoning.com
www.ris-ai.com
github.com
gist.github.com
github.com
gist.github.com
writings.stephenwolfram.com
kevingal.com
towardsdatascience.com
spedygiorgio.github.io
github.com
www.projectrhea.org
method to_string(this)
Translate a Markov Chain object to a string format.
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC) : `MC` . Markov Chain object.
Returns: string
method to_table(this, position, text_color, text_size)
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC)
position (string)
text_color (color)
text_size (string)
method create_transition_matrix(this)
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC)
method generate_transition_matrix(this)
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC)
new_chain(states, name)
Parameters:
states (state )
name (string)
from_data(data, name)
Parameters:
data (string )
name (string)
method probability_at_step(this, target_step)
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC)
target_step (int)
method state_at_step(this, start_state, target_state, target_step)
Namespace types: MC
Parameters:
this (MC)
start_state (int)
target_state (int)
target_step (int)
method forward(this, obs)
Namespace types: HMC
Parameters:
this (HMC)
obs (int )
method backward(this, obs)
Namespace types: HMC
Parameters:
this (HMC)
obs (int )
method viterbi(this, observations)
Namespace types: HMC
Parameters:
this (HMC)
observations (int )
method baumwelch(this, observations)
Namespace types: HMC
Parameters:
this (HMC)
observations (int )
Node
Target node.
Fields:
index (series int) : . Key index of the node.
probability (series float) : . Probability rate of activation.
state
State reference.
Fields:
name (series string) : . Name of the state.
index (series int) : . Key index of the state.
target_nodes (Node ) : . List of index references and probabilities to target states.
MC
Markov Chain reference object.
Fields:
name (series string) : . Name of the chain.
states (state ) : . List of state nodes and its name, index, targets and transition probabilities.
size (series int) : . Number of unique states
transitions (matrix) : . Transition matrix
HMC
Hidden Markov Chain reference object.
Fields:
name (series string) : . Name of thehidden chain.
states_hidden (state ) : . List of state nodes and its name, index, targets and transition probabilities.
states_obs (state ) : . List of state nodes and its name, index, targets and transition probabilities.
transitions (matrix) : . Transition matrix
emissions (matrix) : . Emission matrix
initial_distribution (float )
Shorting when Bollinger Band Above Price with RSI (by Coinrule)The Bollinger Bands are among the most famous and widely used indicators. A Bollinger Band is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average ( SMA ) of a security's price, but which can be adjusted to user preferences. They can suggest when an asset is oversold or overbought in the short term, thus providing the best time for buying and selling it.
The relative strength index ( RSI ) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that security. The RSI can do more than point to overbought and oversold securities. It can also indicate securities primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell. Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought situation. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition.
The short order is placed on assets that present strong momentum when it's more likely that it is about to reverse. The rule strategy places and closes the order when the following conditions are met:
ENTRY
The closing price is greater than the upper standard deviation of the Bollinger Bands
The RSI is less than 70.
EXIT
The trade is closed when the RSI is less than 70
The lower standard deviation of the Bollinger Band is less than the closing price.
This strategy was backtested from the beginning of 2022 to capture how this strategy would perform in a bear market.
The strategy assumes each order to trade 70% of the available capital to make the results more realistic. A trading fee of 0.1% is taken into account. The fee is aligned to the base fee applied on Binance, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
